ABSTRACT
<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>In recent years, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Chinese population has been increasing by years, directly leading to an average annual growth rate of 19.90% of medical expenditure. Therefore, it is urgent to work on strategies to control the growth of medical expenditure on type 2 diabetes on the basis of the reality of China. Therefore, in this study, we explored the feasibility of implementing bundled payment in China through analyzing bundled payment standards of type 2 diabetes outpatient services.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>This study analyzed the outpatient expenditure on type 2 diabetes with Beijing Urban Employee's Basic Medical Insurance from 2010 to 2012. Based on the analysis of outpatient expenditure and its influential factors, we adopted decision tree approach to conduct a case-mix analysis. In the end, we built a case-mix model to calculate the standard expenditure and the upper limit of each combination.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>We found that age, job status, and whether with complication were significant factors that influence outpatient expenditure for type 2 diabetes. Through the analysis of the decision tree, we used six variables (complication, age, diabetic foot, diabetic nephropathy, cardiac-cerebrovascular disease, and neuropathy) to group the cases, and obtained 11 case-mix groups.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>We argued that it is feasible to implement bundled payment on type 2 diabetes outpatient services. Bundled payment is effective to control the increase of outpatient expenditure. Further improvements are needed for the implementation of bundled payment reimbursement standards, together with relevant policies and measures.</p>